Think-tank takes closer look at salmon

More research and action is needed in the case of declining Fraser River sockeye stocks, according to a think-tank led by Burnaby academics.

"The think-tank was an incredible gathering of many of Canada's preeminent scientists. ... They really highlighted just how complex this topic is and how much we don't know," said Mark Angelo, chair of BCIT's Rivers Institute and one of four local academics on the think-tank's steering committee. "It's probably more about questions than answers."

The group of roughly 20 scientists met for two days in early December to discuss how to manage declining Fraser sockeye stocks.

While no one knows exactly what happened, theories include disease and sea lice from fish farms, pollution and warming waters, which would affect available food for the fish and migratory patterns for their predators.In July, Fisheries and Oceans Canada was forecasting 10.6 million sockeye salmon would return to the Fraser this year - only 1.37 million came back. It was the lowest run in more than 50 years.

The think-tank came up with several conclusions, mainly that the 2009 forecast was overly optimistic because it failed to adequately account for decreased productivity of the Fraser River sockeye.

Productivity, which is reflected by the number of adults produced per spawner, has been declining since the mid-1990s to the point where the fish are almost unable to replace themselves.

According to the think-tank, overfishing is not the reason productivity is declining. In fact, the government responded appropriately by restricting fisheries to protect the number of spawners.

Whatever happened, occurred when the juvenile fish headed out to sea.

"The conclusion was it did happen in the early period while they hit the ocean," Angelo said, adding the deaths could have been tied to ocean conditions and they haven't ruled out problems associated with fish farms and pollution.

"There is a need for more research," Angelo said.

Most of the research the DFO does is in fresh water, he added - little is done in the salt-water environment.

"I think that has to change."

In November, the federal government announced it would launch a judicial inquiry into the declining sockeye stocks.

The inquiry's report will be submitted to the government on or before May 1, 2011.

But that's a long way off for Angelo.

"Many are worried we may end up waiting for the next year-and-a-half doing little while the inquiry is underway," he said.

Results from the think-tank will be published in mid-January in the hopes the government may take action soon, Angelo said.

Angelo also chairs the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council.

Burnaby SFU's John Reynolds, Patricia Gallaugher and Richard Routledge were also on the steering committee.

Gallaugher is director of the Centre for Coastal Studies, Routledge is a statistics and actuarial sciences professor, and Reynolds is the Tom Buell B.C. Leadership Chair in Salmon Conservation.

The think-tank event was co-hosted by the SFU's Centre for Coastal Studies and the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council, an independent, federally funded group that provides salmon advice to the government and public.

Story link here. 

Related blog entry here.